Basing Your Bets on Baseball Pitching
Here’s something to consider when betting on baseball teams because of who’s pitching that game. What statistics are you actually paying attention to? What stats are affecting/swaying your decision on who to put money on? There are some that are greater indicators than others as to how a pitcher is actually performing. One statistic that you should completely ignore is the Win/Loss record for the season.
You don’t have to be a sportsbook.com betting pro, just a baseball semi-enthusiast, to know the pitcher’s record isn’t by any means a true indicator of his performance. Here’s a quick example for you. Nolan Ryan’s 1987 Astros campaign. He posted a 2.47 ERA with an amazing 1.14 WHIP. He has 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings and ended the year with an 8-16 record. Would those numbers actually prevent you from believing Ryan was capable of winning every game he pitched that year? Of course not, those stats are staggering – except, mind you, for the win/loss record.
Now, I’m certainly not saying that the win/loss record isn’t capable of providing a window into whether the team as a whole is worth betting on, because it is. The hitters could be in a major slump, the bullpen could be unreliable, the manager could be ineffective. So all of those while contributing to a star pitchers less than stellar record would also likely affect who you bet on. But it shouldn’t affect whether you feel confident that a pitcher can win the game.
As a baseball fan, there are few things more infuriating than seeing a great pitcher, especially one that you trusted enough to bet on their team, allow one earned run, a couple scattered hits, fan a dozen and still lose the game…while on the other side of the coin there’s pitchers who can give up 10 runs in a game and still inexplicably pull out a win.
I’ll provide the other viewpoint just for argument’s sake for online baseball betting. There are some who will say a pitcher who gets a win knows how to keep his team in the game, and it’s for that reason the statistic is still good to use to judge a pitcher. I see the logic in this, but in the end I disagree. I think the number of times that a great pitcher would receive such consistent horrible run support and still win games because he “managed” the game well by doing something other than just pitching well is more or less a myth.
Pitchers pitch, strike guys out, get them to hit into the ground…that’s what they do. That’s not “keeping your team in the game,” that’s just pitching well…that’s why they have lower ERA’s and WHIP. But they can still perform at this high level, give up a run or two, and see their win evaporate because either the hitters couldn’t scrap together any offense or the middle relief blew it for the pitcher without him even being on the mound affecting the game.